Trading after Brexit

Thanks for your feedback. So you think the UK will be able to negotiate trade deals with the EU better than we enjoy as members.

You'll no doubt have heard that the EU needs our trade more than we need theirs. This is perhaps THE central argument to the Brexit case but unfortuneatly there are two problems with this theory as I explain here

A graph like this will be in the heads of any EU negotiator post Brexit. It shows the access to the Free Market (and other EU benefits) they should grant to the UK for each concession the UK negotiators make - which will be, basically, agreeing to EU regulations.

The Brexit argument is that we can get into area A - More access to the Free Market for less regulation - in other words, better terms out than in. That is exactly what the EU negotiators will not be able to accept, because it would risk the collapse of the whole project.

If you don't think EU negotiators will play hard, watch this video by a Swiss man that gives a very good account of how his country fared before accepting the rules of the single market

So the end result will be somewhere in area B. I hope our post-Brexit negotiators will be the best, and get right close to the line, and for UK industry this needs to be at the top of the line, near the point x, with maximum access to the EU free market. Because if they don't, that is when the threats to jobs start.

And what can we say about point X? Its just about where we are now, with one vital difference -

No say in any future changes in the rules

Central to the Brexit argument is the false claim that we have no democratic say in EU rules that the UK has to follow. Ironically, that sitution could be exactly where we are post Brexit.

But that's OK, we can still trade with the rest of the world, right?